The conflict in Ukraine is one of the longest running and most destructive in Europe since World War II. After a revolution in 2014, a separatist rebel movement in eastern Ukraine declared independence from Ukraine, sparking a civil war. Ukraine has been receiving military assistance from Poland in the form of weapons and training since the conflict began in 2014 but now, it appears, Poland is pulling back its support.
The decision to stop arming Ukraine was announced officially by the Polish foreign minister, Jacek Czaputowicz, in an address to the press late last month. Czaputowicz stated that the decision had been made to protect both sides in the conflict and prevent a prolonged “frozen conflict”.
The immediate reaction from Ukrainian officials has been one of shock and disappointment. The Defense Minister, Andriy Zagorodniuk, highlighted the importance of military aid from Poland saying, “it could have saved the lives of Ukrainian servicemen”.
The decision made by Poland follows a peace agreement between the Ukrainian and Russian governments in December 2019, known as the “Steinmeier Formula”. This agreement has the potential to end the conflict and guarantee the territorial integrity of Ukraine. Despite this, the warring sides have continued to accuse one another of violations of the agreement and clashes between Ukrainian and Russian forces have intensified.
It is clear that the decision to stop arming Ukraine has had a profound effect on the situation on the ground. Without assistance from Poland, Ukraine will be left without one of its most important allies and its chances of maintaining its sovereignty could be weakened.
In terms of Poland’s reasoning behind the decision, it is argued that it is in their national interest to remain neutral and facilitate a peaceful resolution to the conflict. The Polish government is deeply worried about the potential for a full-scale war between Ukraine and Russia and views neutrality as a way of avoiding such a scenario.
At present, it is hard to say what the repercussions of the decision will be in the long-term. Despite the disappointment felt by Ukrainian officials, the decision by Poland could still provide vital support for the peace process. With any luck, it could lead to a de-escalation of the conflict and a more secure future for the people of Ukraine.
