One way to look at the Florida political landscape is to focus on what’s happening in Miami-Dade County, the most populous county in the state. With over 3 million people, Miami-Dade accounts for nearly 20 percent of Florida’s electorate, and the way the county goes often sets the tone for the statewide vote.
Recently, a poll conducted by Mason-Dixon showed that Miami-Dade voters favor Republican Governor Ron DeSantis by a wide margin. By a margin of 54 percent to 37 percent, these Miami-Dade voters expressed their preference for the governor in the upcoming re-election contest.
However, when these same voters were asked about whether they would support DeSantis as a potential presidential candidate in 2024, the results were far less favorable. Among Miami-Dade voters, only 34 percent said that they would support DeSantis in a White House race, with 56 percent saying they would either not support him or were undecided.
The reasons behind these numbers aren’t difficult to discern. Much of Florida’s population is aging, with many retirees residing in the Miami-Dade area. Many of these people are fiscal conservatives who are satisfied with the governor’s fiscal discipline, but don’t seem to have the same level of enthusiasm for the offensively flavored remarks DeSantis has been known to make.
Similarly, younger voters in Miami-Dade, Hispanics especially, are more apt to object to DeSantis’ hardline immigration positions. While these voters may favor a Republican governor, they are not as likely to look favorably upon someone who they consider to be hostile towards immigration.
It’s a contrast that DeSantis himself is likely aware of. On the one hand, he must appeal to fiscal conservatives and retirees to win a governorship in a state as large as Florida. On the other hand, he must also be mindful of the opinions of the more diverse younger population if there is to be any chance of a presidential run.
This study of Miami-Dade voters, then, reveals the schism between Republicans who want to remain in power in certain states and those who may have ambitions for higher office. Ron DeSantis is just one example of a politician who will have to govern in a manner that strikes a careful balance between appeasing local constituents and winning over a wider base of potential voters.